There is a tremendous amount of talk on the Internet about net neutrality and mobile phone platform openness. Google has found the weak link in the chain of Apple and the iPhone’s armor – and it is vulnerability that Apple has always had and could be the source of its loss in market share if it doesn’t change its ways.
Apple has always tried to control their platforms. In the desktop computers of the 1980’s and 1990’s they controlled pretty much all the hardware that went into their computers while Microsoft’s Windows embraced a much more open environment that could accommodate a much broader range of computer hardware. Limiting the hardware allowed Apple to provide a controlled environment that promoted less crashes by allowing for a more thoroughly tested platform while Windows systems were known for performance issues and frequent crashing. But Windows largely won that battle – over 90% of personal computers were running Windows and less than 10% were running Apple’s Macintosh for a long long time.
The open x86/Windows platform allowed for greater competition in the hardware space which brought down pricing and allowed for more people to afford personal computers. It also allowed buyers to cater their PC’s to their budget and enthusiasm level. In the end, through their purchasing, buyers said loud and clear that they preferred to have choice through Windows over the potentially superior experience of Apple’s Macintosh. Microsoft used their openness to develop a standard that they controlled for many years. I understand that Bill Gates has said that Microsoft’s secret to success is in controlling the standard, not creating a superior product – and I think he is right.
Bringing all of this forward to 2007 and Apple introduces the iPhone which is a smash hit. There is no one that can deny how important the device is to the telecommunications industry and the progression of the mobile Internet over the past 2 years. But Apple has not learned their lesson – at least they have not shown it. Google, with the introduction of their ‘open’ Android platform is about to be launched on many phones, by many manufactures, on many networks. Like Windows, many manufactures can now build phones around a single operating system that Google is giving away for free. Further, the operating system allows for much more customization/personalization and it allows hardware vendors to create professional oriented phones, entertainment oriented phones, phones that are geared towards teenagers, etc., also promoting innovative competition.
Google’s Android platform is positioned to become the standard in the mobile phone space, like Windows is/was, leaving the iPhone in the dust, like Windows did to the Macintosh.
The only thing that might save Apple are its applications. They have a big head start in the number of applications and because the number of iPhones out there is so great, developers will continue to flock to their platform. That being said, Google’s Android platform represents a much smaller percentage of the number of phones out there yet it has 1/10th or so the number of applications already which shows the desire of developers to capitalize on the platform, even with a relatively miniscule number of buyers for their software.
The parallels between Google’s Android and Applie’s iPhone and Microsoft’s Windows and Apple’s Macintosh couldn’t be more clear. It will be exciting to see how Apple faces the challenge this time. So far they have mostly opted to keep tight control of their platform (see Apple’s rejection of Google Voice, Google Latitude, etc.).
We shall see…
